Global Warming GIF and Methods
This GIF shows the best estimate year (median across an ensemble of climate model simulations) in which we project the world will reach 1.5C and 2C above a pre-industrial average. The boxes show the 5th-95th percentile range and the whiskers show the full range of years when we expect 1.5C and 2C to be reached.
Ben Henley and I produced this GIF.
Ben Henley and I produced this GIF.
Technical Details
These estimates were calculated using projections from state-of-the-art climate model simulations used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project (CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012). The RCP8.5 high emissions scenario (2006-2100) is used as this most closely matches recent greenhouse gas emissions. The natural climate baseline is approximated as the mean of the historicalNat simulations over the 1901-2005 period. The difference, D, in 10-year moving window averages of a given model’s RCP8.5 simulation and the equivalent historicalNat simulation are then used to identify when a 1.5C and 2C warmer world occurs. If D is between 1.3-1.7C then the years within those decades are selected to be in the 1.5C world. Similarly, if D is between 1.8-2.2C then the years within those decades are selected to be in the 2C world. The use of decadal averages allows for variability in our warmer worlds meaning they represent warmer climates with adequate internal variability.
The years in our 1.5C and 2C warmer worlds were pooled into their respective groups and the median and 5th-95th percentile range were extracted. These years are displayed in the GIF.
The years in our 1.5C and 2C warmer worlds were pooled into their respective groups and the median and 5th-95th percentile range were extracted. These years are displayed in the GIF.
Reference
Taylor K E, Stouffer R J and Meehl G A 2012 An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 485–98
If you want any further details or clarifications please send me an email ([email protected]). I will add a Q&A section to this webpage as I receive questions.